thanks timotheus
pageant is definitely running with key. In fact, I genned a new key and posted it to launchpad. I also tried resetting the router to no avail.
I have now totally uninstalled bazaar including deleting all repositories and the application data folder and reinstalled. I even deleted my branch from launchpad! I then carefully and systematically proceeded through the setup steps, looking at the log after each step. But it failed, when I tried to create a branch, with the same error.
However, I have found my original bzr.log (from when it was working) and I now see a difference.
In both cases, you can see bazaar looking for an SSH key when, as per setup instructions, I created a branch on launchpad.
"No such file...dwmosman/.ssh/known_hosts"
"No such file...dwmosman/application data/bazaar/2.0/ssh_host_keys"
However, the original log then went on:
...INFO: Connected (version 2.0, client Twisted)
...WARNING: Adding ssh-rsa host key for bazaar.launchpad.net:...
---Trying SSH agent key...
...INFO: Authentication (publickey) successful!
Now this isn't happening. Instead, the new log says 0kb transferred and starts a tracelisting that ends with
...line 257, in _raise-connection_error
SocketConnectionError: Unable to connect to SSH host bazaar.launchpad.net; Unable to connect to bazaar.launchpad.net: [Errno 1054] An existing connection was forcibly closed by the remote hoste
So I now think the error is on my pc, not seeing the key. I found a suggestion to try environmental variable BZR_SSH=plink, and also Christian made a suggestion maybe related on upgrading python and replacing plink with something else (don't have it in front of me but will let you know if either one works).